El Nino and La Nina Weather Disturbances, Typhoons (Phil Setting)

 EL NINO WEATHER DISTURBANCE

This is a photo of the windmill field - just a regular, ordinary, green field..  The stream is even further off to the
right, also not in this photo.

During the night of the most flooding, water began rushing down our little side road. At first we
thought it was just a lot of runoff from the saturated hilly ground.

 what once was a flat field was now a field of rushing water and a new
waterfall! Somehow our windmill remained standing. We think the huge oaks behind it
helped.

What was once the beautiful green field in the top picture.

MANILA, Philippines — Be prepared for the onset of El Niño, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said Friday.

In its July 2009 weather outlook, Pagasa said the country might experience a transition from El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions to a “weak El Niño.”

“A transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions will likely continue in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Statistical and dynamical models indicate a probability of a weak El Niño to develop in the coming months,” the agency said.

50% chance

Pagasa first raised the possibility of the coming of El Niño last month.

Pagasa spokesperson and Deputy Administrator for Operations and Services Nathaniel Cruz told the Inquirer that models by international monitoring agencies indicate an “above 50 percent chance” of the onset of moderate El Niño conditions.

“For now, there is no need to panic. El Niño is not like a storm whose effect we can immediately feel. It could take months before we can feel the effects. We have time to plan mitigation measures,” he said.

El Niño usually means lack of rainfall and lesser tropical cyclones for the Philippines.

Cruz said this would have an effect on sectors that depend on water like agriculture, energy and even health.

“For the farmers, it is time to plan their planting period, or plant other crops that require less water,” he said.

Pagasa, Cruz said, has been meeting monthly and coordinating with other government agencies on mitigation measures against El Niño.

Transition to El Niño

Cruz’s statements came after the United States Climate Prediction Center, an office under the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, said in a monthly report that the equatorial Pacific Ocean has “transitioned ... to El Niño conditions.”

According to the center, climatic trends favor a “weak-to-moderate strength El Niño” into the northern hemisphere winter of 2009, “with further strengthening possible thereafter.”

It also said the sea surface temperature climbed to one degree Celsius above normal along a narrow band in the eastern equatorial Pacific in June.

The Climate Prediction Center also said temperatures in other tropical regions were also above normal, with warmer than usual readings of as much as 200 meters below the ocean surface.

El Niño is caused by warming of the seas in the Pacific and is associated with increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific but with drier than normal conditions over northern Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

A Reuters report said El Niño would pose major problems to wheat production in Australia, affect palm oil output in major producers Malaysia and Indonesia, and hit rice production in the Philippines, the world’s biggest importer of the staple.

MANILA, Philippines - The Philippines, the world's biggest rice buyer, may import more of the grain if an expected moderate dry spell hits its harvest, a senior government official said on Tuesday.

Agriculture Undersecretary Bernardo Fondevilla told a media briefing local weather forecasters were expecting a moderate El Nino would hit the dry cropping season, affecting nearly 544,000 hectares planted to rice.

Asked whether Manila would import more rice due to El Nino, he said: "If we have to, we will." He did not give details.

Fondevilla said a mild El Nino episode may cause farm sector losses of nearly P10 billion ($215 million).

"If the effect is severe, and that is unlikely, then the losses will be greater."

Manila's rice purchases so far for 2010 are seen exceeding 2.4 million tons, a record high, after the government bought nearly 2.3 million from 4 tenders last year and said it would allow private firms to bring in 163,000 tons.

The country advanced imports for this year after losing 1.3 million tons of paddy rice from strong typhoons that ravaged crops in September and October.

The Southeast Asian nation's rice harvest shrank by more than 3% to 16.26 million tons in 2009, the first time output of the national staple dropped since a severe El Nino episode hit the entire archipelago.

The government had forecast paddy output to drop 1.7% to 7.25 million tons in the first half of 2010 from a year earlier due to the dry spell, which the agriculture department had estimated might impact around 50 provinces.El Niño is a large scale oceanographic / meteorological phenomenon that develops in the Pacific Ocean, which is associated with extreme climatic variability; ie, devastating rains, winds, drought, etc. It is the migration, from time to time, of warm surface waters from the western equatorial Pacific Basin to the eastern equatorial Pacific region, along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador.

Characteristics of El Niño

•  It occurs in the Pacific basin every 2 to 9 years;
• It usually starts during the Northern winter (December to February);
• Once established, it lasts until the first half of the following year,
• It exhibits phase-locking in annual cycles (El Niño and rainfall
• fluctuations associated with it tend to recur at the same time of the year; and
• It usually has a biennial cycle (El Niño events will often be preceded

Effects of El Niño in the Philippines

In the Philippines, drought events are associated with the occurrence of El Niño episodes.

Second and third order impacts of El Niño related drought events in the Philippines include:

(a) environmental (degradation of soil which could lead to desert-like conditions if persistent, effect on water quality like salt water intrusion, high forest/grass/bus fire risk, domestic water supply shortages, etc.);(b) social (disruption of normal human activities, migration to urban communities, human and health problems, etc.); and (c) economic (unemployment, food shortages, significant reduction in the productivity and subsequent revenue of various industries, hydro-electric power generation, etc.).

SOURCES:www.abs-cbnnews.com/.../el-nino-slash-philippine-growth-01-neda
                   newsinfo.inquirer.net › ... › Inquirer Headlines › Nation 
                   www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=551288...68

LA NINA  WEATHER DISTURBANCE

La Niña develops over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and is characterized by unusually cold surface temperatures of the ocean.La Niña is associated with extreme climatic variability such as devastating rains, winds, drought, etc.This condition can prevail for two to three seasons (six to nine months) thus affecting the economy on both the local and global scales.The term La Niña (the Little Girl) was used by many scientists and meteorologists to differentiate it from El Niño.La Niña events are also linked to a change in atmospheric pressure known as the Southern Oscillation (SO).This is characterized by a seesaw (positive) in the atmospheric pressure between the western and central regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean, with one center of action located in the vicinity of Indonesia and the other center located over the central Pacific Ocean.This is characterized by a seesaw (positive) in the atmospheric pressure between the western and central regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean, with one center of action located in the vicinity of Indonesia and the other center located over the central Pacific Ocean.

How Are La Niña Events Detected?

La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean can now be detected by many methods, including satellites, moored buoys, drifting buoys, sea level analysis and expendable bathythermographs. This research observing system is now evolving into an operational climate observing system.Large computer models of the global ocean and atmosphere use data from this observing system as input to predict/monitor La Niña, as well as El Niño.Other global models are used for research to further understand the phenomenon.

How Does La Niña Affect Our Climate?

Impacts of La Niña on Philippine climate include anomalies in rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone activities. During La Niña conditions, major parts of the country experience near normal to above normal rainfall conditions particularly over the eastern sections of the country. La Niña conditions also favor tropical cyclone formation over the western Pacific which tend to increase the number of tropical cyclones.

sources:
www.uswaternews.com/archives/arcglobal/8lanin12.html
www.encyclopedia.com › ... › Compounds and Elements
www.reuters.com/article/idUSMAN31400820070314 -
www.cpc.noaa.gov › El Niño/La Niña › The ENSO Cycle